Using continuous imagery from NASA’s PUNCH (Polarimeter to Unify the Corona
and Heliosphere) mission, scientists predicted the near-Earth arrival of a
solar eruption to within 30 minutes in an initial proof of concept test. The
results, presented Tuesday at the Committee on Space Research Scientific
Meeting and under review at the journal Space Weather, could revolutionize the
way Earth-impacting storms are forecasted.
“We thought PUNCH would be good at
this, but it’s a stunning result,” said Craig DeForest, principal investigator
for PUNCH at Southwest Research Institute’s Solar System Science and
Exploration Division in Boulder, Colorado. “To put it in perspective, this
could be the space weather equivalent of going from a steam engine to a modern
internal combustion engine.”
Solar storms are caused by huge
explosions of material off the Sun called coronal mass ejections. Forecasting
when the ejections will reach Earth is key for mitigating their impacts on
power grids, satellites, and astronauts. However, until recently, coronal mass
ejections could not continuously be tracked for much of their journey across
the solar system.
That changed in 2025 with the
launch of the PUNCH mission, which uses four spacecraft in low Earth
orbit to make continuous 3D observations of the inner solar system. Before
PUNCH, coronal mass ejections could only be seen as they traversed one-fifth
the way from the Sun to Earth, leaving scientists to guess what happened over
the rest of the distance. With PUNCH’s wider field-of-view, scientists can now
routinely track the solar explosions nearly all the way to Earth, capturing a
new image every four minutes.
This video created from PUNCH images shows the May 31,
2025 coronal mass ejection (CME) streaming out from the Sun. The yellow line
shows the leading edge of the CME. By tracking a CME across the inner solar
system, scientists are now able to predict when a solar storm will reach Earth
better than ever before.
NASA/PUNCH/SwRI
Scientists
used data from a coronal mass ejection that left the Sun on May 31, 2025, to
retroactively test if they could improve forecast modeling. Scientists input
the images into a computer model, which analyzed the leading edge of the
coronal mass ejection over time. As it moved and evolved across the inner solar
system, the model used the coronal mass ejection’s speed and geometry to
calculate when it would reach Earth.
Twelve hours after the coronal mass
ejection left the Sun, the model settled on a final prediction showing the
storm would arrive eight hours later. That predicted arrival time was
ultimately accurate to within a half hour, making it 10 times better than
currently used methods, which only provide a 5-hour window. In addition, the
model itself revealed when the estimate had stabilized, so that a space weather
forecaster would be able to predict the arrival time with confidence.
“We accomplished an order of magnitude
better result than the state-of-the-art method with a really basic process,
just informed by the fact that the coronal mass ejection could be tracked
continuously across the solar system,” DeForest said.
These first results demonstrate the
power of PUNCH’s wide-field imagery to track the solar events as they travel
out from the Sun. Ultimately, the scientists think that with more refined PUNCH
data and better models, they could be able to forecast coronal mass ejection
arrival times even further in advance.
Beyond space weather forecasting, the
images also help scientists glean new insights on coronal mass ejections. The
high-resolution images allowed the scientists to see new structures in coronal
mass ejections, revealing that the clouds of material are clumpier than
previously thought and continue to evolve as they cross the solar system.
The PUNCH data is also helping
scientists better understand how plasma, the solar material launched by coronal
mass ejections, moves across space. This information can help astrophysicists
better understand plasma’s behavior across the galaxy, such as in star-forming
regions where it is nearly impossible to study on small scales.
Southwest Research Institute, based in San Antonio, leads the PUNCH mission and operates the mission’s four spacecraft from its facilities in Boulder. The mission is managed by Space Science Mission Operations at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland, for the Science Mission Directorate at the agency’s headquarters in Washington.
By Mara Johnson-Groh
NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Md.
Source: NASA’s PUNCH Sharpens Solar Storm Forecasting in First Test

