Credit: Polina Tankilevitch from Pexels
Consider the following scenario.
There's a ransomware attack, enhanced by AI, which paralyzes NHS
systems—delaying medical care across the country.
Simultaneously, deepfake videos
circulate online, spreading false information about the government's response.
At the same time, a foreign power quietly manipulates critical mineral markets
to exert pressure on the economy.
The scenario is not just a theory.
It is a situation waiting to be rehearsed. And research suggests an old tool
called wargaming—an exercise or simulation of a threatening
situation—provides the method to do exactly that. Researchers are indeed calling for a new research agenda for experimental design for such games, applied
to modern scenarios.
In a world of compounding crises,
the UK government has published its first-ever chronic risks analysis, delivering a stark warning. It says the threats of
the 21st century are already here and they're deeply interconnected.
From AI-driven cybercrime to
biodiversity loss and demographic shifts, the report maps 26 chronic risks that
are slowly eroding national security, economic resilience and social cohesion.
The analysis rightly calls for a
broader response, urging collaboration across government, industry, academia
and society at large.
If chronic risks are the century's
slow burns, then wargaming is the fire drill we haven't run. In brief,
wargaming is a centuries-old tool to explore "what if" scenarios by
simulating real-world crises.
In a wargame, participants take on
roles, usually in opposing teams, and make decisions in response to unfolding
events. Depending on the scenario, participants are recruited to act in a way
that would be characteristic for the military, government, industry or
humanitarian organizations.
By revealing gaps, stress points
and unexpected outcomes, wargaming helps decision-makers plan smarter and
respond faster when the real thing hits. Ignoring these feedback loops risks
turning slow moving challenges into sudden, systemic shocks.
Historically limited to traditional
warfighting, it increasingly offers a way to stress-test systems against
cascading threats, from resource scarcity driving geopolitical tensions to
digital exclusion fueling misinformation.
Beyond war
Wargaming is still popular among
organizations across the world. The Pentagon uses red team exercises to anticipate hybrid warfare. Red-teaming
includes modeling of the adversary and attempting to predict their reasoning,
planning and actions.
Nato's "locked shields" exercises simulate cyberattacks on critical
infrastructure. And the EU runs tabletops, exercises that help help stress-test defense capability development plans.
Developments in AI have
recently been translated into gaming
techniques. The Rand corporation has run wargames on issues from anti-microbial resistance to
climate change.
Singapore has used wargaming to test urban development policies involving climate adaptation, transportation and
population growth.
At a recent Rand Europe wargame
examining the governance of AI in health care, players were asked to act as
policymakers deciding whether to impose strict, moderate or minimal regulation
on new AI tools such as automated transcription of doctor visits. They had to
balance this with concerns about safety, privacy and equitable access.
The game illustrated how competing
priorities, such as innovation speed versus regulatory oversight, shape
real-world decisions. Despite the complexity of the topic, participants
typically reached a consensus within minutes, revealing not only preferred policies
but also the trade-offs that were revealed under pressure. The results of the
game showed that regulation has to adapt to emerging risks, rather than be
rigid.
Exercises like this demonstrate how
wargaming can expose underlying assumptions and offer policymakers,
practitioners and the public a structured way to debate difficult choices
before or as they appear in the real world.
Depending on the scope of the game,
you could choose to play one round or scenario, or extend it to more in-depth
questions. The game results are the most relevant for those who will have to
make such decisions, but it's also very telling to provide them with pathways
chosen by the public.
So what games should we be playing?
The rapid evolution of crypto-based scams could be explored through a matrix
game that includes financial regulators, banks and tech companies. A matrix
game allows for a quick role-play of specific agendas with proposed actions
judged by an expert facilitator. Participants would be divided into groups of
criminals, law enforcement, industry and financial sector. They would then
simulate a scenario where fraud spreads faster than enforcement can respond,
revealing regulatory blind spots and communication failures.
In another exercise, policymakers
could model how a terrorist group might weaponize AI-generated deepfakes.
Participants from law enforcement, public health and social media platforms
would need to determine how quickly they could identify and respond to the
threat while maintaining public trust.
A third scenario could focus on
geopolitical competition over critical minerals. A simulated trigger event
involving European, Chinese and African actors would allow players to explore
the impacts on trade policy, infrastructure security and diplomatic engagement.
These simulations would not predict
the future, but would reveal how different people might behave when systems
come under stress. Indeed, research into wargaming shows that while these tools
aren't perfect, they are extremely useful.
Wargaming offers a range of
techniques suited to different risks. Matrix games allow multiple actors to
make decisions in an evolving scenario. This makes them ideal for exploring
uncertainty and conflicting interests. Red teaming helps organizations see their systems from the
perspective of an adversary, exposing vulnerabilities that may go unnoticed in
internal assessments. And tabletop exercises can help policymakers trace the
second- and third-order effects of a crisis.
We conduct fire drills, flood
drills and emergency alerts for physical disasters. It is time we have more
opportunities to do the same for digital blackouts, deepfake terrorism and
financial manipulation. These risks are not theoretical. They are already
beginning to reshape our world—governments must take heed.
Reports like the chronic risks
analysis are vital for naming and describing the dangers ahead. But they must
be matched with tools that prepare us to navigate them. Wargaming gives us a
chance to practice the future—to uncover the gaps in our systems, to rehearse
our collective response, and to build the resilience we will need in the years
to come.
We might not be able to predict the future perfectly given the speed of change. But we can test the options for potential futures. Wargaming is how we start.
This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
Source: Wargaming: The surprisingly effective tool that can help us prepare for modern crises
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