100% renewable energy by 2050? A global model maps the way forward - Energy & Green Tech

Credit: Image generated by the editorial team using AI for illustrative purposes.

Reaching a perfect balance between the amount of greenhouse gases released in the atmosphere and those that are removed, is considered an important milestone for limiting global warming and its adverse effects on the environment on Earth. This goal is referred to as net-zero emissions, as it would entail that emissions and removed gases would balance each other out, resulting in zero total greenhouse gas emissions.

To pave the way for net-zero emissions, many energy engineers and global leaders have been developing and facilitating the deployment of energy technologies that produce, store and distribute electricity sourced from renewable sources. The most established among these technologies are solar cells and wind turbines, yet they also include hydroelectric power systems, green hydrogen production systems, devices for capturing carbon dioxide (CO₂) and various other energy solutions.

Researchers at Tsinghua University and other institutes recently carried out a study aimed at exploring the possibility that the world could realistically run entirely on clean electricity by 2050. Their paper, published in Nature Energy, presents a detailed model of a fully renewable global power system, estimating hourly energy demands across different geographic regions worldwide and introduces a proposal of how renewable energy technologies could help meet these demands.

"Achieving global net-zero power systems by mid-century demands integrated frameworks addressing climate mitigation and energy access equity," write Ziheng Zhu, Hanjie Mao and their colleagues in their paper. "We present a spatio-temporally resolved global power system model (0.25° × 0.25°, 8,760 hours) co-optimizing capacity expansion and operational strategies."

Scenario framework and associated SCOE for net-zero power systems. The left panel illustrates the conceptual design of 15 scenarios, diverging from the BASE scenario along axes of demand growth and socio-technological advancement (scenario definition in Extended Data Table 1). The right panel presents the corresponding SCOE (US dollar per megawatt-hour) breakdown by technology and transmission infrastructure for each scenario. SCOE is defined as the annualized capital and operational expenditures divided by total electricity demand, excluding distribution and administrative costs. UHV: ultra-high voltage; DPV: distributed photovoltaic; UPV: utility-scale photovoltaic; CCS: carbon capture and storage. Credit: Zhu et al. (Nature Energy, 2026).

Modeling a fully renewable global power system

The primary goal of the recent study was to devise a model outlining the energy infrastructure and technologies that would enable all regions worldwide to rely on electricity sourced from renewable sources. The model created by the researchers simulates the electricity demands of all geographical regions worldwide over the course of one year, breaking them down on an hour-to-hour basis.

The model predicted the deployment of solar cells and wind energy solutions based on available land, then looked at how close these technologies would be to inhabited areas requiring electricity. Using the model they created, the team tried to predict whether it is actually feasible for the world to only rely on electricity from renewable sources.

"Our findings show that net-zero global power systems meeting universal electricity needs for decent living standards are technically feasible, requiring 15–20 TW of variable renewable energy (VRE)," write Zhu, Mao and their colleagues. "Abundant VRE resources offer cost-effective electricity access in low-income regions, such as Africa, promoting climate justice. Land use is critical, with solar photovoltaics alone requiring over 9 million hectares. Over 80% of VRE is within 200 km of load centers."

Overall, the team's analyses suggest that realizing a global electricity system that yields net-zero emissions is technically possible. Moreover, they show that some geographical regions, particularly parts of Africa, would benefit greatly from the introduction of more affordable renewable energy technologies and solutions.

Optimized deployment of variable renewable energy. Credit: Nature Energy (2026). DOI: 10.1038/s41560-026-02054-1

Insights and implications for renewable energy efforts

The model created by the researchers also pinpoints some of the challenges that could be faced when trying to create a fully renewable global energy system. Specifically, it shows that to achieve such a system, solar cells alone might need to be deployed in over 9 million hectares of land, which might not be ideal or might be difficult to achieve.

The team's efforts also allowed them to identify strategies that could lower the costs of a worldwide net-zero electricity system. These include demand-side management (i.e., changes in when and how people use electricity), expanding large power lines that transmit electricity across different countries and removing trade barriers (e.g., tariffs, import taxes and trade restrictions).

"Demand-side management could reduce system costs by 6.5% (∼US$182 billion yr⁻¹). Expanding international transmission and removing renewable technology trade barriers could cut costs by 5.6% (∼US$157 billion yr⁻¹) and 12.2% (∼US$345 billion yr⁻¹), underscoring the pivotal role of international collaboration in building inclusive net-zero power systems," the researchers state.

This recent study could potentially guide the work of global leaders and policymakers who are currently working to reduce emissions within the energy sector. For instance, it could encourage them to invest in international power transmission infrastructure, reduce or remove taxes on renewable energy and address other factors that could limit the trade of renewable energy across different geographical regions. 

by Ingrid Fadelli, Phys.org

edited by Gaby Clark, reviewed by Robert Egan 

Source: 100% renewable energy by 2050? A global model maps the way forward