Credit:
Pixabay/CC0 Public Domain
Offshore wind energy generation is
a central pillar of Europe's energy transition. At the same time, it is placing
increasing demands on models that are expected to reliably predict future wind
power production and its impact on the atmosphere. A study by the
Helmholtz-Zentrum Hereon now shows that both atmospheric boundary conditions
and technical decisions made during the development of wind farms can lead to
significant differences. The various turbine parameters have a particularly
strong influence on the calculations, as the associated reduction in wind
speeds has a substantial impact on the results. The researchers' findings
were published in the journal Wind Energy Science.
For the study, the established
regional model COSMO6.0 CLM was further developed and combined with an expanded
wind farm module that offers greater flexibility than previous versions. For
the first time, different turbine types and rotor sizes, as well as staggered
commissioning schedules of individual wind farms over time, can be represented
within a single model. In parallel, the researchers investigated how the
spatial arrangement of turbine arrays affects the simulated total power
production.
Larger turbines alter both the wind field and energy yields
"The results show that,
assuming a total installed capacity of 150 gigawatts in the North Sea, there
are clear differences in the simulated power production. The differences
between the scenarios amount to around 15 gigawatts in total, which corresponds
to a remarkable 10% of the overall capacity," says Prof Corinna Schrum,
who contributed to the study as head of the Hereon Institute of Coastal
Systems—Analysis and Modelling.
The largest deviations occur
between different turbine types, particularly between older models with lower
rated capacity and modern installations with very large rotors. The
technological shift toward ever larger turbines shows pronounced effects. The study
compares two extreme cases: small 3.6 MW turbines and modern 15 MW turbines.
Power curves for turbines with different
rated capacities. Idealized power (solid lines), uncorrected curves calculated
directly from the provided turbine power coefficients (dashed-dotted lines),
and corrected curves obtained following the application of the scale factor
(dashed lines). Credit: Wind Energy Science (2026). DOI: 10.5194/wes-11-1077-2026
Extended wake effects assumed
A key aspect of the study is the
analysis of the wake effects behind wind turbines, which are characterized by
reduced wind speeds and increased turbulence, as the turbines extract kinetic
energy from the wind. As shown in previous studies—including those conducted by
Hereon—the wake effects of wind farms can extend more than 50 kilometers
downstream of the wind farms, significantly reducing wind speeds in those
areas.
However, until now, the influence
of different boundary conditions used to drive regional simulations has largely
been neglected in those studies. Additionally, it was demonstrated for the
first time that realistic modeling of wind fields under the influence of the
wind farms built between 2008 and 2021 could be performed, with variations of
approximately 20% depending on the location, weather conditions, and wind farm
configuration.
The results of the study have direct relevance for offshore wind power planning and for forecasting the total amount of offshore wind energy to be generated. They provide an assessment of the accuracy of simulation results and show that different modeling approaches can lead to substantially different forecasts: wind farms need to be explicitly represented in both weather forecasting models and the generation of historical, so-called reanalysis data. To achieve a realistic assessment of energy yields and to adequately address the ecological and infrastructural context of future expansion, it is essential to take these uncertainties into account.
Provided by Helmholtz Association of German Research Centres
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