When a SpaceX rocket crashes into the moon, scientists will be watching - Astronomy & Space Space Exploration - Planetary Sciences

The estimated impact location of the Falcon 9 upper stage on the lunar surface is shown with a blue dot. Credit: arXiv (2026). DOI: 10.48550/arxiv.2607.14625

On Aug. 5, 2026, an abandoned piece of space junk is predicted to crash into the moon near a spot called Einstein Crater. Astronomers will be watching because the collision and aftermath may be visible from Earth.

The crash is a rare opportunity to record an artificial impact in real time. It will also let scientists test a new method for pinpointing exactly where objects strike the moon, which could help prepare for future lunar seismic experiments.

A new paper available on the arXiv preprint server calls on the scientific community to observe the event, encouraging both professional and amateur astronomers to get involved.

Collision course

The object on a collision course with the moon is the upper stage of a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket (cataloged as 2025-010D). It began its journey in January 2025 when it successfully launched two private robotic landers toward the moon.

Once the rocket stage had boosted these landers onto their trajectories toward the moon, it ran out of fuel and couldn't propel itself safely into deep space or head back down to Earth to burn up in the atmosphere. Instead, it has been drifting.

The object, which is roughly 12 meters (39 feet) long, 4 meters (13 feet) wide and weighs approximately 4,000 kilograms, is expected to smack into our satellite at about 8,750 kilometers per hour (5,400 mph). So what will happen then?

To work out what the impact will look like, the paper's authors took tracking data calculated by astronomer Bill Grey and fed it into a high-tech physics simulator. The resulting computer models suggest that because the rocket is a hollow metal shell, it is unlikely to penetrate as deeply as a typical solid asteroid.

Instead, the structure will be crushed on impact, blasting open a brand-new crater roughly 20–30 meters (66–98 feet) wide and launching a massive cloud of lunar dust several kilometers above the surface.

This dust cloud is exactly what researchers are hoping people will be looking for. As they write in their paper, "Potential observables from this event include the flash at the time of impact ... and the ejecta plume."

Set your alarms

The collision is due to happen on the moon's visible side, and observers will need cameras that can shoot video at very high speeds, according to the authors. Timing is going to be everything. At the moment, the debris is expected to crash-land at 06:35 UTC. 

by Paul Arnold, Phys.org

edited by Lisa Lock, reviewed by Robert Egan 

Source: When a SpaceX rocket crashes into the moon, scientists will be watching