A
new study, published in the journal Nature Climate Change, supports
predictions that the Arctic could be free of sea ice by 2035.
High temperatures in the Arctic during the last
interglacial — the warm period around 127,000 years ago — have puzzled
scientists for decades. Now the UK Met Office’s Hadley Centre climate model has
enabled an international team of researchers to compare Arctic sea ice
conditions during the last interglacial with present day. Their findings are
important for improving predictions of future sea ice change.
During spring and early summer, shallow pools of water
form on the surface of Arctic sea-ice. These ‘melt ponds’ are important for how
much sunlight is absorbed by the ice and how much is reflected back into space.
The new Hadley Centre model is the UK’s most advanced physical representation
of the Earth’s climate and a critical tool for climate research and
incorporates sea-ice and melt ponds.
Using the model to look at Arctic sea ice during the
last interglacial, the team concludes that the impact of intense springtime
sunshine created many melt ponds, which played a crucial role in sea-ice melt.
A simulation of the future using the same model indicates that the Arctic may
become sea ice-free by 2035.
Joint lead author Dr Maria Vittoria Guarino, Earth
System Modeller at British Antarctic Survey (BAS), says:
“High temperatures in the Arctic have puzzled scientists
for decades. Unravelling this mystery was technically and scientifically
challenging. For the first time, we can begin to see how the Arctic became sea
ice-free during the last interglacial. The advances made in climate modelling
means that we can create a more accurate simulation of the Earth’s past
climate, which, in turn gives us greater confidence in model predictions for
the future.”
Dr Louise Sime, the group head of the Palaeoclimate
group and joint lead author at BAS, says:
“We know the Arctic is undergoing significant changes
as our planet warms. By understanding what happened during Earth’s last warm
period we are in a better position to understand what will happen in the
future. The prospect of loss of sea-ice by 2035 should really be focussing all
our minds on achieving a low-carbon world as soon as humanly feasible.”
Dr David Schroeder and Prof Danny Feltham from the
University of Reading, who developed and co-led the implementation of the melt
pond scheme in the climate model, say:
“This shows just how important sea-ice processes like
melt ponds are in the Arctic, and why it is crucial that they are incorporated
into climate models.”
Source: https://www.bas.ac.uk/media-post/past-evidence-supports-complete-loss-of-arctic-sea-ice-by-2035/
Source: https://myfusimotors.com/2020/08/13/past-evidence-supports-complete-loss-of-arctic-sea-ice-by-2035/
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